"War economy": 10 black swans for 2023 from Saxo Bank

"Low interest rates no longer make people dream of a peaceful world with clean energy, equal rights, and independent central banks. In 2023, the world's economies will switch to a "War Economy," where economic gains for each country and self-reliance are more important than globalization." That's how sure Saxo Bank is, which just put out a report on the black swans that could happen in the coming year.

Black swans are events that seem like they couldn't have been seen coming, have a big effect on society and the economy, and can be looked at after the fact to see how they could have been seen coming.

Here are the 10 "crazy" things the Danish bank thinks will happen:

1. A group spending billions of dollars makes a new energy plan called the "Manhattan Project," which will cost a trillion dollars.

Because the world's need for energy is always growing, the world's richest people have come together to start a research and development project on a scale not seen since the Manhattan Project, which gave the U.S. its first atomic bomb.

2. Emmanuel Macron steps down as president of France

After the 2022 election, France's politics will be stuck in a stalemate, and Marine Le Pen's popularity will rise. This will force President Macron to leave politics and step down from office.

3. Gold goes up to $3,000 because central banks can't keep inflation in check.

As markets and central banks realize that the idea that inflation is temporary is wrong and that prices will stay high for longer, gold soars, reaching a price of $3,000.

4. The European Union puts together its own army

Since there are still problems in the region and the U.S. military isn't doing its traditional job of protecting the world, the European Union agrees to make its own armed forces to protect itself from things like the Russia-Ukraine war.

5. A country agrees to stop making meat by 2030.

In order to be one of the world's leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a high tax on meat but also stop making it at home.

6. The United Kingdom holds a vote against Brexit

After a recession and a lot of pressure at home, the U.K. is in the middle of a political mess that will end with a vote to cancel Brexit.

7. Price controls everywhere to stop official inflation

History tells us that rationing and price controls are part of how the economy works during a war. This time is no different, as strict price controls are being put in place by the government, which has a number of unintended effects.

8. OPEC+ and "Chindia" leave the IMF and agree to trade in new reserve assets.

Changes in the value of the U.S. dollar in countries that don't see the U.S. as an ally have been caused by sanctions against Russia. To get out of this, they leave the IMF and make a new asset to hold as a reserve.

9. The exchange rate between USD and JPY is set at $200 while Japan changes its financial system.

After the problems the Japanese yen had in 2022, the Bank of Japan tries to keep it from falling. If things don't work out in the long run, Japan will start over with its whole financial system. USD/JPY goes up to $160 and $170 because people are getting very angry about how high inflation is getting. When the USD/JPY goes above $180, the government and the central bank step in and set a limit at $200.

10. Banning tax havens destroys private capital

With a war economy, more attention is paid to national interests and the ability of independent countries to stand up for themselves. In this way, OECD countries focus on tax havens and use their biggest weapons to ban them outright.